Model Analysis, May 9th.

May 21st: Elevated storms in eastern CO?

Zonal flow at the 500mb level across much of the central US would keep storm development at a minimum, lee troughing to the east of the Rockies could produce some elevated thunderstorms, but this doesnt look like much of a chase day.

May 22nd: Storms in MT and ND?

C0ntinued zonal flow over the southern plains, will produce little in the way of thunderstorms, but again, some lee side troughing over the Rockies could provide the focal point for a few storms over eastern CO and western KS, and with any backed suface winds I guess one or two storms could trigger. The more interesting feature on this day is the large vort-max over the northern plains (MT, WY, ND and SD) PVA and southerly flow at the southerly flow at the surface could potentiall aid a thunderstorm outbreak over eastern Montana and western ND (no thanks to driving that far the day after I get off a trans-atlantic flight)...we will hope for something better.

May 23rd: MCS in KS?

Getting better - The vort max that was across Montana will slide southeastward through teh day, and some PVA associated with that would aid for thunderstorm development a little further south - unfortunately the forcing with this looks northwesterly, ie. MCS and linear developing. So I am not getting my hopes up if this situation pans out.

May 24th: storms in the upper midwest?

Vort max continues to hang out over western IA and eastern NE, an amplified ridge over the rockies would help to shove this PVA into the uppper mid-west, however, at this point the model doesnt really show signs of sigificant development of storms. -- to lead on from this, the big amplified ridge is being aided but a trough digging into the mid-west, hopes would be that this trough continues to develope and begins to spit waves out into the southern plains in the period after this...