Model Analysis, May 19th.

12z GFS - not looking pretty i must say, this run is a little depressing.

This may be the last one before the flight, so here it goes.

May 22 - Ridge over the plains, but a trough starting to dig some vorticity over into UT, maybe a good sign? - we will see.

May 23 - Flow across the plains become more zonal - with a small trough through SD, could trigger a few thunderstorms along the ND/SD border.

May 24 - Whats left of a minor trough slips through IA, allowing for a few storms i would imagine, but nothing to get too excited about.

May 25 - Ridge returns to the plains, as a trough moves into the mid-west, through southern IL model suggest a few storms would be possible across MO, we shall see.

May 26 - Another trough beginning to affect the west coast, this throws another bit of energy across the northern plains, with the GFS surface analysis firing a few storms through the Dakotas again.

May 27 - Trough stays put over the western CONUS, scattered thunderstorms across the northern plains, doubtful they woudl be too severe.

May 28 - not much change from the previous day...

May 29 - again, a few thunderstorms possible across the Dakotas, but nothing worth chasing.

May 30 - broad ridge across the plains with a little weakness across the northern plains, gfs puts some storms through IA, but again, not worth chasing.

May 31 - this woudl be my last chasable day, but there is nothing to write home about in terms of storms...