Model Analysis, May 7th.

0z GFS Run:

May 21:

A trough starting to build in the SW will move out into western New Mexico during the morning hours on the 21st. Good PVA and WAA into the southern Plains would make for a decent chase day across southeasternKansas and NW Missouri (although it looks like itwould go linear pretty quickly with decent forcing)(Either way - this is the day I am flying in - so its not like I could chase it anyway)

May 22:

This is the last day showing up on the Model at this point, another trough will push a vort max into SW Kansas - causing another shot of severe weather across much of central Kansas [this situation seems better for sustained supercells]...(this would suck though, as I am not sure if we would have time to getthere before the afternoon/evening outbreak.

The good news is though, that while much of the middle part of May is looking pretty bad for chasing in the plains, the pattern starts to become more interesting right around the time I arrive in the states...lets hope this trend continues and it could be a fun time toward the end of May!