Model Analysis, May 10th.

0z GFS:

May 21 - Nothing to chase.
A large upper trough camped out over the west coast and ridging through the Great Plains will supress any real convection, although there could be some elevated lee storms over the northern plains, this looks like a bad day.

May 22 - ???
This is a tough day to figure out...looking at the slp panel, there is a bulls-eye of heavy rain over the bootheel of MO, however, the 500mb shows ridging through the Great Plains, with a stalled upper low still back over the west coast...I cant really figure what would cause precip in this area, maybe diffluence aloft, maybe warm air advection, I dont know, either way I dont think this looks like a set up for severe weather.


May 23 - North Dakota?
The upper trough over the southwest finally begins to swing out however, the Vorticity rides up the ridge into the extreme northern plans, allowing for some thunderstorms to develope over the US/Canadian border, yuck!


May 24 - Minnesota?
Again, any severe weather that could form would be along the US/Canadian border associated with some PVA and a surface low driving through Minnesota, thats too far away for me...


May 25 - Ohio valley?
A short wave appears to be possible just west of the ohio valley, along with being in the front left region of a jet streak, this could aid in enough uplift for some severe convection, but I am not holding my breath...