Model Analysis, May 18th.

12z GFS:

This is an interesting model run...the 24-26 look interesting across the northern plains and then some type of short-wave, vort max gets left behing over the southern plains on the 29th and 30th...either way, its give some hope (more than previous days)...see the details below:

May 21 - Ridge over the plains - no storms.

May 22 - Continued ridge over the plains, upper low nearing the northwest coast.

May 23 - Ridge beginning to weaken slightly, with a little southern vort. digging into southern NV and CA, giving hope of something to come, but not much...

May 24 - Woohoo - Trought swings through the northern plains, energy from northern KS to SD Surface low showing up in northern KS as well, this could be a decent severe weather outbreak in an area from northern KS through southern SD (mainly over NE (the cornhusker state baby).

May 25 - A decent vort max remains over the Dakotas, allowing for another (all be it smaller) shot at severe weather through eastern Dakotas and into MN.

May 26 - Interesting day here...through begins to dig back into Kansas (although very positively tilted, there signs of heavy precip through eastern Kansas and southwest MO), also a look at the 250mb level shows (if you try hard enough) you could say there was some right rear quad of a jet streak in the area -- Im not sold on this set up, but hey, it better than a ridge!

May 27 - Still a bit of troughiness left through the eastern plains, but nothing really to support severe weather - fun time looking like its coming to an end.

May 28 - Omega block beginning to return to the plains - no svr wx.

May 29 - Not sure what it is on this chart, but there appears to be some kind of shortwave showing up in Kansas, I think this is spurious, but the precip and 850mb field could hint toward some dryline activity through the TX and OK panhandle...doubtful though.

May 30 - hmmm. that same piece of energy is again showing up through western NE - this will be something to watch as the precip field does show something through eastern NE and KS...

May 31 - broad weak trough across the eastern half of the CONUS, with a ridge beginning to build back in the plains...(its my last chaseable day anyway, - so time to head home and see the family).