6z GFS:
May 21 - Rigde Block over the Great plains, no good.
May 22 - Still significant blocking.
May 23 - Still a ridge, vort max trying to sneak into the upper Great Plains, but not really very significant.
May 24 - again ugly - this aint looking good.
May 25 - zonal flow across the plains - bad.
May 26 - another little piece of energy running along the jet stream across the northern plains, not very significant, and not worth chasing for sure...
May 27 - This is a chase day vort max does swing into the western part of the northern plains, and would probably trigger severe t'storms across eastern ND and SD as well as MN, thats a loooong way to drive, doubt i would do it.
May 28 - Another chase day across ND and MN, starting to get my attention for possibly driving that far, as the trough becomes a little more neutral.
May 29 - negatively tilted trough could cause a severe weather outbreak over eastern parts of Canada, hahahhah...NO THANKS!
May 30 - Storms move furthern off into eastern canada along with one of the better peices of vorticity i have seen on the GFS since i have been keeping up, too bad its not about 800 miles further south!
We will continue to hope for something better tomorrow. I must say, it is a little disheartening from a storm chase point of view. Since I have been writing the blog on may 7th, there havent been too many chaseable days show up in the model...The ridge that is there now, surely cant last forever, if it does, it could be a long dry summer for the Plains, and that could equal Dust Bowl....
1 comment:
Bell,
Just wanted to confirm your analysis of the models. Not good. We may end up chasing in Canada. Conditions are just as warm and dry as you would expect in the panhandle. Maybe we will meet in OKC.
Signing off from Canyon, TX.
Post a Comment