Model Analysis, May 8th.

GFS Valid 0z, May 8th.

May 21st: Not good.

Uh-oh, not such good news with todays GFS. As per norm, the GFS is undergoing its radical swings in the 10-15 period. Todays swing takes it in the wrong direction for exciting chase material. During the day on the 21st a large ridge (Omega block) is in place over much of the western Plains leaving for some northwesterly flow (and weak at that) so there wouldnt be much to chase at all.

May 22nd: Not good.

Unfotunately the ridging (blocking) in western Plains continues, a little more in the way of northwesterly flow out of the northern Rockies, and the model hints at some rain/thunderstorms in the northern Plains, but as we all know, that flow in that area means elevated bases and almost no risk for naders...

May 23rd: Something, but not much.

SIGNS OF LIFE, albeit, not great signs, but hey, its beter than nothing. 384 hours out, a small trough begins to show up on the 500mb chart over the desert southwest, while northwest flow continues in the northern Plains. The SLP/Precip chart shows a bulls-eye of rain over SW Kansas, but I can not tell if this is an MCS from the northwest flow or if it could be due to some PVA from the trough that is developing in the SW...I guess it doesnt matter too much, because I doubt it will be there in tomorrows run.

Now you are up to date! ha.

Comments are welcome.