Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Model Analysis, May 17th.

0z GFS:

May 21 - Omega block over the Rockies, northwesterly flow through the northern Plains, if anything does develop - it will elevated and not great for chasing.

May 22 - Blocking pattern continues, to whos surprise?? not mine...

May 23 - Continued ridging with the axis almost directly over the Great Plains -- its like the big man is laughing at stormchasers...

May 24 - Rigde starting to transition to a more zonal flow, but still nothing of note to the west to hope for.

May 25 - Almost complete zonal flow across the plains, -- there is a small surface low showing up in SW KS, could be 1 dryline storm, but thats not even worthy of a slight risk, I doubt.

May 26 - SEVERE WEATHER possible...a shortwave through swings across MT and ND, providing a chase day for central and eastern ND - would I drive for it, Im not sure.

May 27 - Vorticity begins to move out over the Great Lakes region, and yet another ridge begins to build back over the northern Rockies, with the Great Plains still in zonal flow.

May 28 - A flattened ridge back across the nations midsection (insert sad emotiocon)

May 29 - Zonal flow

May 30 - A small shortwave trough showing up across northern MO, slp suggest there could be some storm development, but i feel this is a reach, plus, this is my last chasable day.


SO IT ENDS, ANOTHER TERRIBLE MODEL RUN, its beginning to look like my family will see alot of me over this visit, this makes the moms happy, but i wish there could be at least a couple of chase days...

comments if you wish.

more later if i have time.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Trust the model Luke...trust the model!

The GFS actually is pretty good up here...It's my preference to the NAM. But I live on the edge of the planet!

Go forth and eat Cane's and wait for the tops!